A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
